Vladimir Putin is making key decisions about the Ukraine war instead of listening to his own military generals, analysts have claimed.
A report from the US-based RAND Corporation, said the Russian president is being more cautious than expected.
Putin does not trust those around him, so makes “little use of economic or military expertise”, the report states.
The analysts claimed: “Putin [is] making key decisions largely on his own without substantial influence from the Russian General Staff.”
Putin does not trust those around him, so makes ‘little use of economic or military expertise’, the report states
Some western analysts have suggested that Russian leaders such as the Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu are likely to hide bad news from Putin because they are worried about the consequences for themselves.
There is an “atmosphere of suspicion and uncertainty” in the Kremlin, according to Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation.
She wrote in the New York Times that Putin is “quick to blame traitors ” and “self-censorship among top military leaders is likely to become more prevalent.”
The report also said Putin is less enthusiastic to confront NATO than expected.
However, analysts warn that it does not mean he will continue to do so in future.
“If Russian territorial, personnel, and materiel losses continue to mount without improvements on the battlefield, he will face a set of unpalatable choices.
“Including negotiations from a position of weakness, more extensive and potentially destabilising mobilisations, or more draconian attempts to ensure internal control,” it said.
After launching his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin warned other countries that they would face “consequences they have never seen” if they intervened in the war.
Since making the comments, Western countries have provided billions of pounds worth of equipment to Ukraine.
In July the Russian leader said there was a “serious danger” of NATO being dragged further into the Ukraine war if more weapons were supplied.
However, there have been no obvious new consequence for the West.
