India has once again sparked tensions over water with abrupt changes to the Chenab River’s flow at Head Marala raising alarm in Pakistan. According to officials over the nights of December 7 and 8 India released a massive 58,000 cusecs of water only to sharply cut the flow to between 870 and 1,000 cusecs for four consecutive days. Historical data shows that during this period flows normally range from 4,000 to 10,000 cusecs.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office described the sudden variations as “extremely serious,” warning that unilateral water manipulation threatens lives livelihoods food security and the economy. Islamabad has formally reached out to India through the Indus Water Commissioner requesting detailed data and clarification under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
Authorities say India’s emptying and refilling of the Baglihar Hydropower Project violates the treaty which prohibits arbitrary manipulation of rivers allocated to Pakistan. The Court of Arbitration had earlier ruled that such actions constitute water weaponisation.
Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters Syed Mehr Ali Shah confirmed that a formal letter was sent to India with scientific evidence of deliberate water manipulation. Pakistan has also requested immediate consultations to assess the impacts of these sudden water releases.
Tensions remain high after India’s 2024 unilateral attempt to suspend the treaty which the Court of Arbitration ruled was not legally valid. Pakistan’s National Security Committee has warned that any further stoppage of water by India would be considered an act of war underscoring the critical nature of this “water war” amid the winter season.
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